Armstrong’s Core Model: Expectations, Trust, and the Real Business Cycle

Martin Armstrong explains the foundation of his main forecasting framework: a business-cycle model built around human expectations and trust. He argues that when people believe in the future, they invest, take risks, and build — and when confidence collapses, investment and activity slow down. Armstrong also pushes back against the idea that the economy is a rigid, zero-sum machine that can be steered at will. In his view, real-world economics reflects human behavior — and that’s precisely why attempts to “manage” outcomes through manipulation often backfire. Link: https://slobodnipodcast.hr/2025/12/21/zasto-je-martin-armstrong-u-pravu-kada-najavljuje-rat-2026/